The Chalk Model
Poll of Polls

⇐Back to article No mouseover: this is the chalk (according to all the other experts).

  First Round   Second Round     Sweet 16     Elite 8     Final Four       Championship       Final Four     Elite 8     Sweet 16     Second Round   First Round  
  March 15-16   March 17-18     March 23-24     March 24-25     March 31       April 2       March 31     March 24-25     March 22-23     March 17-18   March 15-16  
                                                                               
  1
Virginia>99% chance to advance
Villanova>99% chance to advance
 1  
   
Virginia>99% chance to advance
Villanova>99% chance to advance
  
  16
UMBC<1% chance to advance
            
Radford<1% chance to advance
 16  
   
Virginia>99% chance to advance
Villanova98.5% chance to advance
    
  8
Creighton53% chance to advance
                
Virginia Tech92% chance to advance
 8  
   
Creighton<1% chance to advance
        
Virginia Tech<1% chance to advance
    
  9
Kansas State47% chance to advance
    
Alabama8% chance to advance
 9  
   
Virginia66.5% chance to advance
Villanova74.5% chance to advance
    
  5
Kentucky99.5% chance to advance
                
West Virginia>99% chance to advance
 5  
   
Kentucky46.5% chance to advance
        
West Virginia66.5% chance to advance
  
  12
Davidson0.5% chance to advance
                    
Murray State<1% chance to advance
 12  
     
Arizona<1% chance to advance
        
West Virginia1.5% chance to advance
      
  4
Arizona>99% chance to advance
        
Wichita State>99% chance to advance
 4  
     
Arizona43% chance to advance
        
Wichita State33.5% chance to advance
    
  13
Buffalo<1% chance to advance
    
Marshall<1% chance to advance
 13  
  South  
Virginia60% chance to advance
Villanova74.5% chance to advance
   East  
  6
Miami91.5% chance to advance
                    
Florida99% chance to advance
 6  
   
Miami<1% chance to advance
        
Florida6% chance to advance
  
  11
Loyola (Chicago)8.5% chance to advance
                    
St. Bonaventure1% chance to advance
 11  
   
Tennessee11% chance to advance
          
Texas Tech4% chance to advance
      
  3
Tennessee>99% chance to advance
                    
Texas Tech>99% chance to advance
 3  
     
Tennessee>99% chance to advance
                
Texas Tech94% chance to advance
    
  14
Wright State<1% chance to advance
            
Stephen F. Austin<1% chance to advance
 14  
     
Cincinnati33% chance to advance
        
Purdue25.5% chance to advance
      
  7
Nevada79.5% chance to advance
        
Arkansas65% chance to advance
 7  
   
Nevada<1% chance to advance
        
Arkansas<1% chance to advance
  
  10
Texas20.5% chance to advance
                    
Butler35% chance to advance
 10  
     
Cincinnati89% chance to advance
        
Purdue96% chance to advance
      
  2
Cincinnati>99% chance to advance
        
Purdue>99% chance to advance
 2  
     
Cincinnati>99% chance to advance
        
Purdue>99% chance to advance
    
  15
Georgia State<1% chance to advance
    
Cal State Fullterton<1% chance to advance
 15  
       
 
Virginia35.5% chance to advance
Villanova24% chance to advance
  
   
       
  1
Xavier>99% chance to advance
    
Kansas>99% chance to advance
 1  
   
Xavier>99% chance to advance
    
Kansas>99% chance to advance
  
  16
Texas Southern<1% chance to advance
         Virginia        
Penn<1% chance to advance
 16  
   
Xavier67% chance to advance
    
Kansas>99% chance to advance
    
  8
Missouri37.5% chance to advance
           National Champions          
Seton Hall90.5% chance to advance
 8  
     
Florida State<1% chance to advance
            
Seton Hall<1% chance to advance
    
  9
Florida State62.5% chance to advance
        
NC State9.5% chance to advance
 9  
   
Xavier26.5% chance to advance
    
Kansas54.5% chance to advance
    
  5
The Ohio State>99% chance to advance
                    
Clemson>99% chance to advance
 5  
   
The Ohio State16% chance to advance
            
Clemson45.5% chance to advance
  
  12
South Dakota State<1% chance to advance
                        
New Mexico State<1% chance to advance
 12  
     
Gonzaga33% chance to advance
         0    
Auburn<1% chance to advance
      
  4
Gonzaga>99% chance to advance
         0    
Auburn>99% chance to advance
 4  
     
Gonzaga84% chance to advance
         0    
Auburn54.5% chance to advance
    
  13
UNC Greensboro<1% chance to advance
        
Charleston<1% chance to advance
 13  
  West    
North Carolina14.5% chance to advance
        
Michigan St.28% chance to advance
     Midwest  
  6
Houston>99% chance to advance
    
TCU98% chance to advance
 6  
   
Houston7.5% chance to advance
    
TCU1% chance to advance
  
  11
San Diego St.<1% chance to advance
                
Syracuse2% chance to advance
 11  
   
Michigan31% chance to advance
    
Michigan State65% chance to advance
    
  3
Michigan>99% chance to advance
                    
Michigan State>99% chance to advance
 3  
     
Michigan92.5% chance to advance
            
Michigan State99% chance to advance
    
  14
Montana<1% chance to advance
        
Bucknell<1% chance to advance
 14  
     
North Carolina53.5% chance to advance
    
Michigan St.32.5% chance to advance
      
  7
Texas A&M97% chance to advance
    
Rhode Island86.5% chance to advance
 7  
   
Texas A&M<1% chance to advance
    
Rhode Island<1% chance to advance
  
  10
Providence3% chance to advance
                
Oklahoma13.5% chance to advance
 10  
     
North Carolina69% chance to advance
    
Duke35% chance to advance
      
  2
North Carolina>99% chance to advance
    
Duke>99% chance to advance
 2  
     
North Carolina>99% chance to advance
    
Duke>99% chance to advance
    
  15
Lipscomb<1% chance to advance
Iona<1% chance to advance
 15  
                                                                               

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